Project: Model uncertainties

Total Energies EP Danmark A/S

  • 2019 - 2021

When using computer models, the consistent modeling of the model uncertainty is crucial for their meaningfulness. As part of the AWARE project for Total Energies, we modeled this model uncertainty as a response surface. For this we created a statistical discrepancy model between the numerical prediction of the wave loads and load measurements in a wave basin.

The consideration of uncertainties is of particular importance for the project, in particular the modeling and differentiation of uncertainties that occur once within the lifetime and those that occur repeatedly.

The quantification of the model uncertainty is very complex and the method we developed can also be applied to other problems.

EN