In 2007, two extreme waves were documented breaking at an oil platform in the North Sea, which exceeded the 10,000-year design criteria for both wave height and wave kinematics. The observation indicates that the previous models greatly underestimate the actual wave heights.

Intensive tests were then carried out in wave pools by Total Energies (AWARE project). From this test data we have developed a statistical prediction model using Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo simulations, with which the wave heights can be estimated more realistically. We have placed a special focus on modeling the uncertainties.

The model provides a better basis for load modeling and the prediction of extreme events. The work was done in one paper released. The model is based on a MATLAB function github available.